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G. GRAY, Dept. of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Center for Risk Analysis, 718 Huntington Ave., P-201, Boston, MA 02115 Methylmercury is present, at varying levels, in virtually all fish and seafood. Concerns exist about potential neurodevelopmental and other effects of methylmercury exposure. Fish is also a food with potential health benefits to infants, children and adults. A common risk management strategy is use of fish consumption advisories to provide information about appropriate fish consumption to the general public. Evidence suggests that the public misunderstands the target populations and the guidance in these advisories. We have undertaken a quantitative analysis of the net public health effects of changes in fish consumption, weighing both the risks of methylmercury exposure and the risks of decreases in fish consumption. A group of experts helped develop dose-response relationships for the links between methylmercury and neurodevelopmental effects and fish (or fish components) and neurodevelopment, stroke, and coronary heart disease. These relationships were used to estimate the changes in population health in both natural units (e.g., changes in IQ) and changes in total population Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) under different changed fish consumption scenarios. For example, if women of childbearing age keep current fish consumption levels but follow FDA advice to eat low MeHg fish there is a small increase in QALYs. If these women increase their fish consumption, with current fish consumption patterns, there is a net increase in population health (estimated as QALYs). However, we find that an advisory that results in reduced fish consumption in any population results in a net loss of QALYs.
Session 28, Good fish, bad fish: Perceptions of benefits and risk
2005 IFT Annual Meeting, July 15-20 - New Orleans, Louisiana |